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What is the probability for each scenario to occur?

July 26, 2021
Christopher R. Teeple

Hello there,
So this assignment is basically divided to 4 parts.
For this module, I will send a link to a reading, just general knowledge if you want to use it, but not obligatory. But do go through it as it is needed to analyze the questions. I will also send ALL the videos needed to go through as last time through link. The general topic over the different assignments (questions and answers) are all based on basically: How do you value a FinTech startup?
So for assignment 1: Should be 3 paragraphs. each question has its own paragraph. The question is as follows: Apply what is learned in video to a private Fintech company of your choice.
Pick a private company in Fintech.
You can choose one from this list (Links to an external site- https://www.forbes.com/fintech/2021/#43afe43831a6), use your own example, or use Stellar (Links to an external site – https://www.stellar.org). Analyze the company against the three scenarios we learned about in the last video.
What is the probability for each scenario to occur?
Which scenario is most likely for this company?
What has to happen in this scenario?
(I will send you the video for this part. I will send you in the chat an example of a peer’s answer to understand better).
Notes: few people assigned probabilities that don’t add to 1 — make sure the 3 scenarios fill in theentire range of probability. Your assessment will be flawed if the odds don’t add up to 1! If youthink the probability of wild success is <5%, at least one of your other scenarios should have aprobability near 50%•The “answer” is not to choose which scenario you think is most likely, but to weight each scenarioand calculate a weighted value based on probability — even if you think scenario 2 is the dominantoption, scenarios 1 & 3 should play a role in the upside and downside for proper value.•Failure is the easiest calculation (…$0), but did you find scenario 2 or 3 more difficult to estimate?Pure upside and nuanced success both create challenging aspects for assigning numbers.
*For assignment two: Now that you have learned about how to build a platform with network effects, it is time to apply it to analyze a startup.
Cadre is a startup in commercial real estate that provides investors with access to investment opportunities. According to TechCrunch:
Cadre, headquartered in New York, is currently a platform helping accredited investors delve into commercial real estate deals in what it claims is a far more transparent way. Williams (the founder) likens its offerings to baseball cards. Visitors get information about the properties that have been sourced and approved by Cadre.
For an upfront fee and a recurring subscription rate, they can then buy and sell a stake in a property based on their goals. They also can trade their stakes to other investors on the platform. At least, some of them can. Cadre launched a secondary marketplace some time ago, says Williams, though he adds that it “hasn’t quite scaled the product quite yet …”
(a) List the sides of the market.
(b) Are there any network effects? If so, what are they?
(c) Which sides of the market are the most price-sensitive? Why?
(d) If you had to design a pricing scheme, what would it be?
Assignment Three: Now that you have learned about how blockchain and cryptocurrency work, you will explore ways to apply them to improve a traditional financial product or service. Write one to two paragraphs answering the following questions:
What is one traditional financial product or service that has room for improvement?
How could it benefit from blockchain or cryptocurrency?
So basically each assignment has a video to watch.
Assignment four:In this assignment, you will apply the economic theories you have learned in this module to a Fintech startup.
Suppose that there is a new Fintech startup that enables stock trading simulations for people new to investing. It offers tutorials and charges a subscription. In a written submission of approximately 300-500 words, discuss the following:
How would you value this startup?
Can this startup create network effects? Why or why not?
Can this startup leverage blockchain and cryptocurrencies? Why or why not?
NOTE:So put yourself on the side of an investor. So one side of the pen would be it would turn into unicorn. another pen is to expect failure.

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