Week 3: Judgmental Forecasting
Course Objectives:
CO3: Evaluate Forecasting methods, predictability factors, and causes of error in Forecasting
Prompt:
This week you will be researching and writing on one of the most basic methods of forecasting: Judgmental Forecasting. After reading Chapter 3 in Chase (Overview of Forecasting Methods), access the three excellent resources on Judgmental Forecasting hyperlinked below. Use all three, for they each provide a different perspectives on the broad methodology of forecasting future demand using experience, insight, and business savvy. You may also want to search the internet for any additional resources that add to the lesson material in chapter 3. As the instructions advise in previous assignments, if you do add additional sources, do not use advertisements of any kind, including consultancies and software. Use the template attached to this assignment for your submission. The template includes sections to guide you this week on your essay assignment to explain the methodology of Judgmental Forecasting.
Judgmental Forecasting Resources:
Forecasting Principles and Practices (1 page)
A Comparison of Judgmental Forecasting Techniques (9 pages)
The Delphi Method (1 pages)
Instructions:
Utilize the template attached below for this assignment, it has the sections already formatted for you to insert your findings by subject/question.
Label your submission document as follows: firstinitiallastname_Assignment_3 (something like JJohnston_Assignment_3)
Minimum 1000 words of content of strategic material, double spaced. Content requirement does not include cover page, abstract, nor reference pages.
Source, Cite, and Reference a minimum of three (3) expert resources to provide support for main points in your essay. Each resource is to add to the content through either paraphrasing the author’s position on the subject or a direct quote. Refrain from excessive use of quotes in your response (less than 5% of the 1000 words).
Resources and citations are formatted according to APA (7th edition) style and formatting.
Once you submit your document to the assignment folder it will automatically be loaded to TURNITIN.COM for plagiarism. Make sure your quotes have quotations and correct (to APA) in-text citations and a reference at the end of the paper.
Plagiarism can result in a zero for this assignment:
When using another author’s exact words insert quotation marks and a citation including year of publication and page or paragraph number
When paraphrasing, do not use ANY of the author’s words, use your own “take” on the author’s meaning and context
