The purpose of this assignment is to prepare a paper for the Combatant Commander to use in testimony before congressional committees and in meetings in Washington regarding Kaliningrad using the Strategic Estimate for the Baltic Region. This paper replicates a typical action officer dilemma of having too much information to fit into the confines of the required format. Pay careful attention to the instructions and the format.
SCENARIO AND
SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS
It is December 2021. You are an Action Officer (AO) and a member
of a EUCOM J5 (ECJ5) Joint Planning Group (JPG). As directed by the Chief of
Staff through the J5, your JPG has completed an update of the Strategic
Estimate (see C299 slides provided) for the Baltic Region to get the Commander
up to speed on the situation in the region regarding Kaliningrad and
provide the basis for a commander’s estimate and, if necessary, development of
plans.
Following the successful briefing of the
Strategic Estimate (where it was approved), the Combatant Commander learned
that he would have to travel to Washington to join the Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff at congressional hearings on the situation in the Baltic region regarding Kaliningrad. The Combatant Commander will depart for
Washington sometime in the next few days.
You have been tasked to prepare a paper for the Combatant Commander to
use in preparing for testimony before congressional committees and in meetings
in Washington regarding Kaliningrad. The intent is to provide analysis
of the Strategic Estimate regarding Kaliningrad, not to regurgitate content.
Use the format provided below the line
———————————————————————————————————
ECJ5 Action Officer’s GRADE, NAME
APPROVED
BY: ____________ DATE
STRATEGIC
ESTIMATE OF THE BALTIC REGION
1.
BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION. Include the heading above with your name. The
paper will not exceed three
pages. The focus is Kaliningrad and is designed to provide maximum
information in a manner that is easily absorbed. The format is appropriate for
use whenever the need for presenting summarized information arises. You will use no more than two
pages to summarize the Strategic Estimate that you were provided.
This is a narrative summary, not a cut and paste. Within this paper, you
must include key points from each section of the Strategic Estimate:
Introduction, Strategic Environment, Strategic Direction, Strategic and
Operational Challenges, Potential Opportunities, and Assessment of Risks. Use complete, concise sentences
and cover sub-points clearly and concisely. Do not use bullet points. Use the
headings below to delineate each section of the paper. Cite your source.
Start with a. Introduction.
a. Introduction (including key topic and thesis)
b. Strategic
Direction
c. Strategic
Environment
d. Strategic
and Operational Challenges
e. Potential
Opportunities (Follow
this paragraph format and show how each instrument of national power is used in
each option from the Strategic Estimate using
DIME)
Option 1: Diplomatic, Information,
Military, Economic
Option 2: Diplomatic, Information,
Military, Economic
Option 3: Diplomatic, Information,
Military, Economic
f. Assessment
of Risks & Mitigation (from the Strategic Estimate)
2.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS. You will use no more than one
page for your Conclusion and Recommendation.
a. Recommendation. This very short sub-paragraph
is the opportunity for the Action Officer (you) to apply your judgment, weigh the
alternatives, and recommend one of the options presented in the approved Strategic Estimate –
Up Front (BLUF).
b. Validity assessment. A substantial paragraph
covering the validity assessment of the recommendation and any issues the other
two options may have had because of validity. Ensure you
address the Validity criteria of Feasible, Acceptable,
and Suitable.
c. Justification. Ensure you justify your recommendation by
explaining why it is superior in comparison to the other possible options. You may use (optional) the evaluation
criteria derived from the Strategic Direction found on the last slide. You may
use the decision matrix slide as a tool
(optional) to help
you determine the superior option. If you include the chart / matrix as an
appendix, ensure you explain what it
means.
d. Risks and mitigation. Identify potential risks and mitigation for your recommendation using
the Ends-Ways-Means-Risk
construct.
e. Conclusion. A conclusion restates the thesis
and argues why the author’s position is correct without adding new information.
End Notes
Correctly
formatted end notes go here
