Purpose of This Assessment The final assessment for this competency is a portfolio consisting of a paper and spreadsheet that utilizes economic forecasting to display how economics is related to managerial decision-making. The paper must use the six steps to decision-making in analyzing venture, and address economic, competitive, technology, market, and currency trends and conditions. In addition, it is important consider how to reach optimal decisions while taking into consideration key economic concepts, including supply and demand. You will later use this forecast for the Implementing and Monitoring Business Plan capstone competency. Items Required for Submission • A 5 – 10 page Economic Forecast paper • An Excel spreadsheet of your data using a forecasting model Managerial Economics Final Assessment: Outline & Rubric Step ONE: Preparation Review the six steps of decision making and forecasting models to gain a clear understanding of these managerial economic concepts. • Select an organization that you would like to use to complete this portfolio that would provide you with the insights needed complete both a qualitative assessment of the six steps of decision making, as well as an economic forecast using approximated data. This may be an organization at which you work/volunteer, or you may use the new venture or existing privately owned business that you identified in the Strategic Fundamentals and Environment competency. • Keep in mind that your paper should include at least five references to outside materials. This can include the company Website, articles regarding the industry, publications about forecasting, and any references regarding economic concepts. Step TWO: Write Introduction to your Economic Forecast Paper Now that you have selected an organization to analyze within this portfolio, provide a brief introduction to the organization. This should provide the reader with a general understanding of the company and set the stage for the use of the six steps of decision making. Describe the organization using business concepts. For example: • Is it a product or service based company? • What is the scope of the company (local, regional, nationwide, international, etc.) • What type of industry is this? • How many employees does the company have? • What is (are) the company’s primary objective(s)? Step THREE: Apply the Six Steps of Decision Making in your Economic Forecast Paper 1) Define the Problem • Explain one issue that the organization is facing. o Describe if this problem is internal (primarily impacting employees) or external (primarily impacting stakeholders’ customers, investors, etc.) to the organization. o Explain how this issue impacts the organization internally and externally. Whom does it impact (departments, customers, employees, stakeholders, etc.)? o How long has this been an issue? o How did this issue originate (if known)? • Include references to five sources that will help to explain the industry, organization, or problem. 2) Determine the Objective • Explain in depth the objectives of the organization and how the previously identified problem impacts the organization’s goals. • The following are some questions that provide points of consideration for this section of your paper: o What is the organization’s goal(s)? o How much value does the organization have for this goal(s)? o If there are multiple goals, do they conflict? 3) Explore the Alternatives • Examine potential alternatives for solving the problem. Explain each of the diverse courses of action that can be taken, and identify at least three different alternatives. Managerial Economics Final Assessment: Outline & Rubric • The following provides additional points of consideration for this section of your paper: o What are the variables under the decision maker’s control? o What constraints limit these options? • Consider potential costs when developing your list of alternatives and mention some of these quantitative values to strengthen your paper. 4) Predict the Consequences • Based on the alternatives that you identified in the previous step, examine potential consequences for each of these outcomes. o If the conditions change, how is the outcome affected for each of the alternatives? o If outcomes are uncertain, what is the likelihood of each? • Can better information be acquired to predict outcomes? If so, explain what type of information. • Develop an itemized table in your paper to identify costs associated with each of these alternatives. Briefly explain these costs and use the table to track these options along with their costs on a monthly or yearly basis. Please refer back to the sample application of the six steps to decision making for an example. 5) Make a Choice • Determine which of the alternatives is the best option moving forward for the organization, based on your prediction consequences. Provide justification for your choice using quantitative or qualitative data from your assessment of the consequences and/or table from the previous step. 6) Perform a Sensitivity Analysis • Identify external factors that could potentially impact the organization now that you have made this choice. For instance, consider questions such as the following: o Does the optimal decision change if conditions of the problem are altered; and if so, how? o Is the choice sensitive to key economic variables about which the decision maker is uncertain? • Provide any recommendations for the organization and explain how your findings could impact the future of the organization. Note that your paper must meet the following requirements: • Use APA format and demonstrate academic writing, displaying clarity, conciseness, and correctness • Be 5 to 10 pages in length, double-spaced, using Times New Roman, 12 point font Managerial Economics Final Assessment: Outline & Rubric Step FOUR: Conclusion Briefly explain what has been covered throughout your paper. Provide a recap of the six steps as well as any overall comments. Do not introduce new ideas or concepts within your conclusion. Step FIVE: Forecast Demand Now that you have completed the six steps to decision making, forecast the demand that your organization will experience. Use a spreadsheet to complete a monthly or yearly breakdown of the demand for products or services for your organization. Next, graph this data using a scatter plot and add a trend line to the data to assess what the forecast would display for the organization going forward. Step SIX: Checklist for Submission Before you submit, check to see if you believe you have met the criteria noted below. Did you…. • Use business concepts to provide the reader with a clear understanding of the company? • Explain the issue the organization is facing, including if the problem is internal, how it impacts the organization, and how long it has been an issue? • Include at least five references from independent research? • Explain the objectives of the organization and how the problem impacts the organization’s goals? • Examine at least three potential alternatives for solving the problem, considering potential costs and discussing these quantitative values? • Examine potential consequences of the alternatives? • Include an itemized table explaining the costs associated with each alternative and tracking each option? • Identify which of the alternatives is the best option, justifying the choice using quantitative or qualitative data? • Identify external factors that could impact the organization? • Provide recommendations for the organization and explain how findings could impact the future of the organization? • Use technology to develop a spreadsheet to display your understanding of economic forecasting? • Demonstrate APA academic writing and a sophisticated presentation of all material, displaying clarity, conciseness, and correctness? Is your paper 5–10 pages in length and double-spaced, using Times New Roman, 12 point font?
