It is November 2024 and one party has just gained unified control of Congress and the White House (that is, either Democrats have held onto the White House and Senate, while winning the House majority, or Republicans have won the Senate and White House, while holding onto the House). Assume that the winning party’s margin in both the House and the Senate is slim (an eight vote margin in the House and 52-48 in the Senate) – so there was no big “landslide” either way, even though one party came out ahead in both chambers.
Put yourself in the shoes of a senior adviser to the incoming Senate party leader of the winning party. (Note: for the purposes of this paper, you must “decide” which party has just gained unified control). Assume that your party wishes to pass at least one major bill on taxes or spending, one major bill on a “social” issue (e.g. abortion, immigration, voting rights), and one major bill on foreign policy (e.g. Ukraine, Israel/Palestine, China). Your boss has asked for advice about what, if anything, to do about potential changes to the filibuster in the upcoming Congress. Specifically, the leader has asked you to evaluate:
The impact of eliminating the filibuster (i.e. adopting majority rule) on the ability of your party to achieve its legislative policy goals.
The impact of eliminating the filibuster on the party’s brand name / reputation. Would eliminating the filibuster help your members hold onto their seats in future elections or would it add to the electoral dangers they face?
The impact of eliminating the filibuster on the Senate as an institution (beyond your own party’s policy and electoral interests).
Note: Be specific about whether ending the filibuster would help pass specific priority bills for the party (or whether doing so would not be helpful for that goal) – and explain why. In addition, think about the likely durability of this legislation after the upcoming Congress (should it pass).
