Maximum number of words: 650-700 (+table that i have already created )
This paper should address the question: Is the USA going into recession? For this paper, I must argue that the US is indeed going into recession based on the current drop in consumer expectations.
This paper is very important, so I highly trust you and I’ll make sure to write the best review for you.
I have already drafted an outline with important info. Please read the following paper before writing: https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/5/2216/files/2021/10/us-fear-oct-7-final-nber.pdf
In my outline, I have already highlighted the important parts. I thought about starting the paper by stating the definition of business cycle and recession, and then explaining why it is important to predict a recession). Then, it’s important to mention a few ways to spot a recession, like GDP growth, negative NFP growth, and .3 unemployment rise.
It’s important to highlight that GDP growth cannot be used to foresee a recession since it’s in constant revision (please check outline). Moreover, it’s essential to mention that although unemployment rate and NFP growth are good indicators, we are living an unusual situation due to the covid-19 pandemic.
The most important part is to use consumer expectation index (obtained by the conference board and UM) to justify why the U.S is going into recession. I have created a table (please attach that to the essay) that shows that a drop in consumer expectation resulted in an increase of unemployment rate in all past U.S recessions. Looking at consumer expectation index helps the forecast of recessions as observed historically.
This essay is going to follow the same line of thought as the article I have attached above.
Feel free to research more statistics to corroborate the thesis. Show that this drastic drop in consumer expectation in 2021 is a strong indicator for recession.
Again, thanks for your help and I trust you :)))))) Don’t forget to look at the outline and I have also attached other important sources that should help. (feel free to search for more)
