Choose one of the eyewitness stories in the article “The Beast of Loch Ness: Eyewitness Accounts.” You can access the article here: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/lochness/eyewitness.htmlLinks to an external site. . Develop an essay where you think critically about the claim, using the six Baloney Detection Tools listed below:
Wherever possible, there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”
What does the article say the “facts” are? Are these really facts? (NOTE: This is a great place to include a quotation or two from the article.)
How many people witnessed the event? Are any of these people independent from each other?
What kind of evidence is presented in the article? Is the evidence empirical or anecdotal? How strong is the evidence? How clearly did the person see Nessie? If not, is the evidence trustworthy?
Is any bias present in the claim or the evidence? What does any bias mean for the trustworthiness of the claim?
Spin more than one hypothesis.
What are other possible reasons for what people saw in the loch? Think of one or two.
Occam’s razor
Discuss all the questions that must be answered in order for the claim to be true.
Discuss all the questions that must be answered in order for your alternative hypotheses to be true.
Which hypothesis (the article’s claim or your alternative hypotheses) has the least number of questions that must be answered? Why might the number of questions/type of questions be important?
Apply Occam’s razor. Based on your analysis, which hypothesis is most likely to be true?
Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified.
Is it possible to fake the hypothesis—or any evidence for or against the hypothesis? If so, how could it be done?
How could we find out if the hypothesis was faked? What tests could we run?
How do we know when to trust that a hypothesis—or any evidence for or against the hypothesis—is real?
What are your criteria for trustworthiness of a hypothesis or evidence?
Is it reasonable to think that evidence was faked just because someone says it is?
Is it reasonable to think that evidence was faked just because it disproves a hypothesis you believe in?
Why would people believe the claim–or evidence proving or disproving the claim–was real? Why would people believe the claim–or evidence proving or disproving the claim–was fake?
If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work
Does the claim make an argument? If so, what are the premises, and what is the conclusion?
What is the argument’s structure?
Is the argument good or bad?
Is the argument valid or invalid?
Do you see any logical fallacies in the claim? Which ones? How are they working in the claim?
Do you see any appeals in the claim? Which ones? How are they working in the claim?
Don’t get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours
Is the eyewitness overly attached to their belief in Nessie? How might their belief affect their ability to think critically?
How might perceptual constancies and other perception concepts affect what the person experienced?
Color constancy
Size constancy
Pareidolia
Problems with memory
Expectation
Representativeness heuristic
Denying the evidence
Confirmation bias
Availability error
Helpful hints
You are not trying to figure out whether Nessie exists! We just don’t have the evidence. Instead, you are thinking critically about one of the eyewitness claims presented in the article.
You do not have to answer all the questions I provide in this assignment. These questions are to help you begin applying the Baloney Detection Tools to the claim.
