As we have learned throughout this term, the future of satellite communications is uncertain and unstable. In that sense, it is challenging, if not impossible, to predict what is going to happen. But that is not to say that it is unwise to think about the future. There are many analytic tools that are used to develop reasonable inferences about the future. Many of these revolve around the discipline known as “Scenario Planning.”
In the most basic sense, there are two (2) steps to this process. First, you look at the underlying factors (refer to the lecture in the first module), which will determine the future. What are the specific drivers which shape the future? You will need to go beyond simply citing a single force, for example, technology, but go into more detail. So, you might say that the ability of 5G to provide realistic competition to the performance of terrestrial cable will be a key factor in determining the future of SATCOM.
From there, you develop scenarios that will vary this factor. So, in this example, there is one scenario in which the promise of 5G is not realized, and cellular communications remain confined to personal and highly mobile communications. This may provide open market space for SATCOM solutions. The other scenario would be that 5G is effective and captures a sizable share of the broadband market. In this case, the future for SATCOM would be more constrained. SATCOM may prove to only be commercially viable in areas unserved by 5G.
The assignment for this discussion is to develop four (4) scenarios describing the future of SATCOM. Identify two (2) specific drivers. For each driver, consider two (2) outcomes. One in which the driving event occurs and one in which the driver does not occur. Finally, evaluate which of the drivers was most important and discuss what early signals would provide clear indicators that the drivers would either occur or not occur.
Your initial post should be a minimum of two (2) paragraphs.
Respond to at least two (2) of your classmates’ posts. Participation grades are assessed based on the exchange of ideas in the discussion forums thoughtfully and substantively, reflecting preparation and analysis.
Do not wait until the end of the module week to contribute to each module’s discussions. Aim to respond to the questions as early in the module week as practicable and use the remainder of the module week to read and reply to the posts of your classmates and instructor.
